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Lately, it’s become trendy to say: “Code is no longer the moat — distribution is.”
But this phrase is also an oversimplification, and confusing what a ‘moat’ means.
In fact, distribution does not equate “defensibility”, especially if the market is fickle and technology shifts quickly like in most AI agent markets.
Take the AI note taker market, for example. If you’re building in a low-barrier market, vibe coding doesn’t help you win — it just floods the zone with more competition. Margins get thinner. Churn gets worse.
In that sense, vibe coding is like 🛢️ gasoline for your strategy: it makes you go faster, but doesn’t tell you where to drive. It won’t fix a bad market. It won’t save you from a weak business model.
So in this post, I want to break down why this narrative misses the point — and why:
Shallow distribution (e.g. brand) is not a moat.
Vibe coding can only accelerates commoditization
Vibe coding can strengthen the moat for incumbents with enterprise relationships